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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."